Voter turnout dropped in Hamilton and Marion counties

Voter enthusiasm has waned in two Central Indiana counties since the last presidential election, according to preliminary counts. Both Hamilton and Marion counties saw dips in voter turnout.

Presidential election years typically bring out more voters than the midterm elections, said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political scientist at the University of Indianapolis.

“The presidency is important for a lot of reasons, but from a public opinion perspective, that’s the one office Americans can identify the most,” she said. “Turnout in [midterms] dips down significantly.”

So, how did this election play out and what choices did Marion and Hamilton county voters make this year? We looked at county and state numbers to learn more.

Voter registration and turnout

Marion County, the state’s most populous county, had fewer registered voters this election — almost 20,000 fewer for a total of 650,471 registered voters. And just 54.9 percent of those registered voters cast a ballot this year, according to a statement on election night from the Marion County Clerk’s Office and the county's unofficial results. That would be a drop of four percentage points from 2020, but it's not the final total.

Hamilton County, on the other hand, saw more registered voters this election, according to unofficial results. This increase of over 23,000 voters bumped up the total to 283,202 voters. Voter turnout there was also significantly higher than in Marion County, sitting at around 70.5 percent. That’s about five percentage points less than in 2020 but still higher than Marion County in both elections.

“We have very engaged voters. The political parties in our county are diligent to try to get voters out to cast their vote,” said Beth Sheller in an email to WFYI. She is the election administrator for the Hamilton County Election Office.

“I do not have much of an explanation on why the voter turnout declined from 2020. We have had many Presidential elections though that the turnout was around 70% as it was this time,” she added.

Statewide unofficial totals were not available Thursday, when Indiana Election Division results awaited reporting from some precincts across the state.

Candidate choices

WFYI’s analysis compared only major party candidates for three offices: president, governor, and attorney general. The analysis is based on unofficial counts as of Thursday afternoon. Counties could show slight changes when vote counts are finalized.

This election and in 2020, of all ballots cast, Hamilton County voters cast the most for the office of the president.

Marion County cast most of its ballots for the office of the president this year and governor in 2020.

Hamilton County went for all the candidates who won those offices.

“I’m starting to think Hamilton County might be the new bellwether — not for the state, like in the current election cycle, but that they’re like the predictive, they’re ahead of the curve, they’re like the [county where] four years from now, this is how most of Indiana is going to be voting, because of the unique political engagement and the levels of engagement there,” said Merrifield Wilson.

In the race for president, Hamilton County went for President-elect Donald J. Trump and Marion County for Vice President Kamala Harris.

A minimal portion of Hamilton County voters shifted to the Democratic candidate, and an even smaller portion of Marion County voters shifted to the Republican. Harris had a slightly weaker pull than President Joe Biden did in 2020 in Marion County.

For the governor’s race, Marion County went for the Democratic candidate Jennifer McCormick and Hamilton County for the Republican candidate Mike Braun.

U.S. Sen. Braun won the overall vote and will be Indiana’s next governor starting on Jan. 13.

In both counties, former Superintendent of Public Instruction McCormick picked up more of the vote than her party’s candidate for governor in the 2020 election — and presidential candidate Harris. McCormick received 10.7 percentage points more in Marion County and about 15.4 percentage points more in Hamilton County than the 2020 Democratic candidate for governor.

Governor-elect Braun picked up 51.1 percent of the vote in Hamilton County and 33.7 percent in Marion County – that’s less than Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb did in both counties in 2020.

In the race for attorney general, incumbent Republican Todd Rokita won Hamilton County and Democratic candidate Destiny Wells won Marion County.

“With just two years that we’re comparing and the relatively small size, I don’t know that we can read too much into it,” said Merrifield Wilson, the political scientist.

She said the changes recorded these past two presidential elections in numbers and voter choices do not necessarily reflect a trend.

Voting method

There were also some differences in voters’ preferred method of casting a ballot.

In both counties, more voted in-person this election than with paper ballots, which are mostly mail ballots, but also include votes for military, overseas, and homebound voters.

Both counties saw declines in absentee voting overall — including early in-person — compared to the previous presidential election, which took place during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Marion County, where 46.4 percent of ballots were cast absentee, the county saw around 50,000 fewer absentee ballots cast this election, a drop of about 8.4 percentage points from 2020. In Hamilton County, by contrast, over 24,000 fewer votes were cast absentee, dipping to 59.2 percent this year, or about a 13.7 percentage point decline in absentee voting.

This year, in Hamilton County, most voted early in-person, followed by in-person on Election Day. More Marion County voters came out for Election Day than they did for early in-person voting.

Finalized vote counts will not be available for any county until at least mid-November.

Contact Investigative Data Journalist Zak Cassel at zcassel@wfyi.org.