Is Hamilton County purple yet?

As the polls closed Tuesday night, election watchers from around the country turned their attention to Hamilton County, Indiana — which many described as a bellwether for the nation.

A Republican stronghold a decade ago, Democrats had hoped to turn the county blue in 2024. Election night, national media and political junkies pointed to Harris’ early lead in Hamilton County — one of the first suburbs to begin reporting results — as a positive sign for her campaign.

But when all the votes were tallied, Donald Trump won 52% of votes in Hamilton County, defeating Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points, nearly the same margins as 2020.

For Hamilton County Republican Chair Mario Massillamany, that victory was a repudiation of the idea that the northern Indianapolis suburbs have gone purple.

“Clearly it's showing that Hamilton County is still a red county,” Massillamany said.

Massillamany said some Hamilton County voters are reluctant to support Trump. But he pointed to GOP dominance down ballot. Republican candidates won virtually every partisan race in the county.

But, Massillamany acknowledged that the county is competitive. “We can't just put our name on the ballot with an R and expect to win. We actually have to put in time, effort, and energy to make sure that voters understand why to vote Republican.”

The number of Hamilton County voters who supported the Democratic presidential candidate surged between 2016, when Clinton won 37% percent of the vote, and 2020, when Biden won 45% percent of the vote. This year, Harris won 46% percent.

“There's no doubt we were hoping for a lot more wins than we realized last night,” said Jocelyn Vare, chair of the Hamilton County Democrats. But Vare said there were some positive signs for Democrats in the community.

While parts of Hamilton County remain more steadfastly conservative, Harris won Carmel and Fishers in 2024.

"Hamilton County is recalibrating to be a bipartisan community,” Vare said. “It wasn’t long ago that it was never considered a bipartisan county.”

Vare said that more long-time Hamilton County residents are backing Democrats because they feel that the Republican party has changed and no longer represents their views.

Political scientist Laura Merrifield Wilson, an associate professor at the University of Indianapolis, said that the competitive nature of races in Hamilton County is rare for Indiana. Most of the state is dominated by Republicans, with some spots, like Indianapolis, where Democrats often run unchallenged.

In Hamilton County, Wilson said, “We're seeing a lot of engagement in terms of politics that you don't necessarily see in the same way across the state.”

Voter turnout is typically high. In 2024, about 71% of registered voters turned out in Hamilton County.

There are a few plausible reasons why the northern suburbans have become more politically divided, Wilson said. One is that suburbs such as Carmel and Fishers have had a surge in new residents, who may be moving from more liberal places — like Indianapolis — and bringing their political views with them.

Diane Hannah is one of those transplants. She and her family moved to Carmel in 2021 from New Jersey. Hannah, who mostly votes for Democrats, has met Republicans and Democrats through her involvement in the Carmel school board race.

“What I have seen is people just talking across differences in really productive ways,” Hannah said.

Hannah said even the Republicans she talks to are often tired of Trump and “terrified” of Micah Beckwith, a right-wing pastor who will be Mike Braun’s lieutenant governor.

The school board elections in Carmel and Fishers, which are technically non-partisan, were one place where Republicans struggled. Nearly all of the candidates backed by the GOP were defeated.

Republican Erik Young is the executive director Carmel Excellence, a political action committee that backed several unsuccessful conservative candidates for the school board. He said winning those elections is more of a challenge because the community has become more liberal.

Young has lived in Carmel for 20 years, and he said he sees the area change as people move from places like California and Illinois. “They're leaving actually blue areas to come to Carmel,” he said.

Many parts of Hamilton County, however, remain solidly Republican.

Derek Madlem, who has lived in Noblesville for about 16 years, said that he is a Democrat and he’s increasingly liberal. But he believes his area of the county has remained conservative. 

“People have just been Republicans forever,” Madlem said. “They're going to stay being Republicans no matter what.”

WFYI  investigative reporter Lee V. Gaines and policy editor Jill Sheridan contributed to this story.