IU business school forecast shows return to normal for state, national economies

Indiana University business school leaders say the national and state economies are “returning to normal.”

Those leaders also warn that there’s uncertainty in the economic forecast they unveiled Wednesday, pending the results of next week’s election.

The Kelley School of Business’s “Futurecast” shows less economic and employment growth in 2025 compared to the last few years. But Kyle Anderson. clinical assistant professor of business economics, said it puts the state and country on a “sustainable path to growth.”

“Employment growth will be about 1 percent over the next year,” Anderson said. “So, enough to create jobs, but probably not enough to keep our unemployment from drifting up a little bit — which is probably OK.”

That’s despite how many people feel about the economy, said Indiana Business Research Center director Carol Rogers.

“The feeling economy vs. the actual behavior that we’re still going to Target and Walmart and shopping on Amazon,” Rogers said.
 

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But there’s still, as Rogers put it, “certain uncertainty” — much of it tied to the election, as Russell Rhoads, clinical associate professor of financial management, joked about in his presentation.

“Yeah, doing a market outlook before we know who’s going to be president — who wants this job?” Rhoads said.

If former President Donald Trump wins and carries out his promises to enact significant tariffs, it could incite a global trade war. And Rogers said that would be particularly damaging to Indiana.

“We make huge amounts of money via our businesses that export our goods,” Rogers said. “Think about pharmaceuticals, think about cars, think about rocket parts.”

Other risks to the forecast include ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the federal deficit.

Brandon is our Statehouse bureau chief. Contact him at bsmith@ipbs.org or follow him on Twitter at @brandonjsmith5.